24.08.2026 16:00 UTC
フェア確率 (マージンなし)
直近10試合の調子 (SStats)
負傷と欠場
AI予想の本命： 1詳細
The mathematical prediction model shows that FC Köln enters this DFB-Pokal first-round clash against Würzburger Kickers as the heavy favorite on August 24, 2026. The statistical model assigns a 13% winning chance to the home side, a 17% probability for a draw after 90 minutes, and a 70% win probability for the visiting Bundesliga squad. Würzburger Kickers have started their 3. Liga season strongly with a 2-2 draw at Ingolstadt followed by a dominant 4-0 home victory against Wehen Wiesbaden. FC Köln, under the guidance of head coach René Wagner, look sharp after a productive pre-season that included consecutive club friendly victories over Real Sociedad (2-0 and 2-1). However, since this is a cup tie played away from home for the top-flight side, a cautious approach is warranted. Würzburger Kickers have high scoring momentum, and with the home fans behind them in a sold-out AKON Arena, they can test Köln's defensive structure.
Form Analysis and Key Statistics
Würzburger Kickers Form: W-D-L-W-W. The home team has adjusted well to the competitive nature of professional football following their promotion to the 3. Liga. Their front line, led by Ivan Franic, has shown impressive clinical efficiency, netting four past Wehen Wiesbaden.
FC Köln Form: W-W-D-W-W. The visitors have not played an official league match yet this season, but their form in friendly matches is pristine. Defeating La Liga side Real Sociedad twice in August proves that Wagner's squad has cohesive match rhythm.
Head-to-Head (H2H): 0-0. There are no recent competitive encounters between these two specific setups over the last five seasons, making this a fresh tactical battle.
Injuries and Suspensions: FC Köln received a massive boost as forward Luca Waldschmidt has been cleared to play after avoiding a significant injury scare in an internal match against Paderborn. New loan signing Thijs Dallinga from Bologna is also available to lead the attack. Würzburger Kickers boast a fully fit squad with new captain Daniel Hägele anchoring the midfield.
Additional Markets and Score Prediction
Given Würzburger Kickers' high scoring output (6 goals in their last two league games) and Köln's offensive depth featuring Dallinga and Waldschmidt, the total goals line is highly likely to exceed the standard line. Würzburger Kickers will seek to exploit transitional moments, which means Both Teams to Score (BTTS) carries a high probability. Our analytical model deviates slightly from the raw 70% win margin for Köln due to the historical unpredictability of the DFB-Pokal first round. A 65% win probability for the away side, 20% for a draw, and 15% for a home upset represents a safer reflection of competitive match fitness.
Total Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Double Chance: X2 (Draw or FC Köln Win)
Most Likely Exact Score: 1:3
Main Bet Conclusion
The most reliable option for this cup tie is FC Köln to win and over 1.5 match goals (or simply backing Away Win P2 for standard lines). The class difference between a consolidated Bundesliga team and a newly promoted 3. Liga outfit will eventually dictate the match pace over 90 minutes.
試合マーケット