🤖 AI benchmark: hit-rate of 7 models

Prematch ライブ (in-play)

Seven external AI models (Hermes contour) independently analyze the same 試合 — predicting the 結果 (1X2), total (オーバー/アンダー), both チーム to スコア (BTTS) and the exact スコア. Here we honestly compare their 予想 against the real result after the final whistle and combine everything into a single accuracy rating. An informational and analytical snapshot, not betting advice.

⚠️ Data is still accumulating — counting starts from 09.07.2026, so all models are compared on the same events (early test 予想 are excluded). The sample is still small and not representative. Right now the snapshot holds 2928 試合(es), 9548 settled AI 予想 (サッカー, テニス, バスケットボール, バレーボール, ホッケー, 卓球). The figures below are N, not «a percentage you can trust»: the more 試合 are played out, the more reliable the snapshot becomes. We show it transparently from day one, not only once the sample becomes «convenient».

全スポーツサッカーテニスバスケットボールバレーボールホッケー卓球

Leaderboard

Model	N (settled)	1X2	ダブルチャンス (1X)	Exact スコア	Composite accuracy
ChatGPT	263	65.0%(171/263)	74.6%(47/63)	17.2%(35/203)	44.2%(206/466)
Claude	2417	60.7%(1467/2417)	77.3%(683/884)	22.4%(479/2138)	42.7%(1946/4555)
Kimi	1109	60.8%(674/1109)	73.8%(253/343)	20.3%(196/964)	42.0%(870/2073)
Google AI	3062	59.7%(1828/3060)	74.4%(804/1080)	20.3%(612/3020)	40.1%(2440/6080)
GLM 5.2	1285	59.5%(765/1285)	74.4%(302/406)	19.5%(246/1261)	39.7%(1011/2546)
DeepSeek	175	60.6%(106/175)	56.1%(23/41)	18.5%(32/173)	39.7%(138/348)
Qwen	1237	59.3%(733/1237)	75.0%(267/356)	16.8%(196/1166)	38.7%(929/2403)

grey — sample <5, not representative; «—» — the モデル has not made a settled 予想 yet.

ダブルチャンス (1X) — the same ピック counts as a 勝利 if the chosen side won or the 試合 drew. Of the 1X2 losses in football/hockey: 739 draws, 794 underdog (total settled 1X2 ピック in these sports: 3173, double chance combined 75.0% (2379/3173)). The models almost always take the favorite and don't bet on a 引き分け — double chance shows how many bets are eaten specifically by draws.

Composite accuracy — the share of correct 予想横断 all 表示マーケット together: (sum of correct ピック) ÷ (sum of all settled ピック) 横断 the マーケット 1X2 + Exact スコア. Each マーケット-ピック weighs equally. This is hit-rate, not profitability — for money/ROI by モデル see /ai-agent. «Exact スコア» — the full final スコア was guessed correctly (H and A matched); for tennis, sets are compared; 予想 with no recognized スコア do not count toward the denominator. ダブルチャンス (1X): a ピック counts as a 勝利 if the chosen side won OR it was a 引き分け — it accounts for frequent draws that «eat» bets on the favorite. This metric is informational and is not included in composite accuracy. On «全スポーツ» we don't show total and BTTS — they're tied to the sport and make no sense in a mixed pool.

Composite モデル rating · all マーケット

Bar height = the モデル's composite accuracy 横断 all applicable マーケット on the current sample. Sorted from best to worst.

44.2% (206/466)

GPT 5.5

42.7% (1946/4555)

Opus 4.8

42.0% (870/2073)

Kimi 2.6

40.1% (2440/6080)

Gemini 3.5 Flash

39.7% (1011/2546)

GLM 5.2

39.7% (138/348)

DeepSeek V4 Pro

38.7% (929/2403)

Qwen 3.7 Plus

Bars are AI models by version; grey/dimmed — sample <5, not representative. The snapshot is informational, not betting advice.

Accuracy by マーケット

Where each モデル is strong: one mini-bar per applicable マーケット, with the percentage and (hits/sample).

ChatGPT Composite 44.2%

1X2

65.0% (171/263)

Exact スコア

17.2% (35/203)

Claude Composite 42.7%

1X2

60.7% (1467/2417)

Exact スコア

22.4% (479/2138)

Kimi Composite 42.0%

1X2

60.8% (674/1109)

Exact スコア

20.3% (196/964)

Google AI Composite 40.1%

1X2

59.7% (1828/3060)

Exact スコア

20.3% (612/3020)

GLM 5.2 Composite 39.7%

1X2

59.5% (765/1285)

Exact スコア

19.5% (246/1261)

DeepSeek Composite 39.7%

1X2

60.6% (106/175)

Exact スコア

18.5% (32/173)

Qwen Composite 38.7%

1X2

59.3% (733/1237)

Exact スコア

16.8% (196/1166)

The モデル's favorite by 1X2 = the max of P1/X/P2 in its probabilities; for sports without a 引き分け (tennis, volleyball, etc.) the «X» option doesn't participate. grey — sample <5, not representative. Not betting advice.