23.08.2026 19:30 UTC
フェア確率 (マージンなし)
直近10試合の調子 (SStats)
AI予想の本命： 1詳細
Almería will aim to preserve their unbeaten run when they travel to face Tenerife at the Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López on August 23, 2026. The analytical models establish Almería as marginal favorites with a 37% win probability against Tenerife's 34% chance, while the probability of a draw rests firmly at 30%. Significant pre-match market adjustments show heavy backing for the hosts, as Tenerife's odds dropped from 3.2 to 2.85, whereas Almería's odds drifted out from 2.3 to 2.55. This noticeable drift is directly tied to a growing list of key absences for the visiting squad. Given the statistical likelihood of a tightly contested affair in the Segunda División, the Double Chance (X2) market provides a well-balanced tactical entry point.
Current Form Analysis
Tenerife enters this matchday following a highly inconsistent streak over their last five matches, yielding a record of WLWLD. Their defensive organization has shown clear vulnerabilities, allowing opponents to exploit spaces when transitioning away from possession. In sharp contrast, Almería features an exceptionally stable recent form sequence of WWDWD. Their tactical discipline under pressure has made them notoriously difficult to break down, remaining completely undefeated across this 5-match sample size.
Head-to-Head (H2H) History
Recent structural historical matchups lean heavily in favor of the visitors. Out of the most recent historical encounters between these two specific clubs, Almería has claimed 2 wins to Tenerife's 0 wins, alongside 0 draws. Almería managed to secure a dominant 2-0 victory in their latest direct fixture, showcasing superior positional flexibility and clinical efficiency in the final third.
Injuries and Suspensions
Squad availability is the deciding variable driving the sharp market movements. Tenerife boasts a highly stable squad with only winger Alassan Manjam sidelined due to a tendon rupture. Conversely, Almería faces severe selection dilemmas. Head coach Xavier García Pimienta is missing several vital structural elements:
Forward Thalys is serving a 4-match suspension.
Midfielder Gui Guedes is out following meniscus surgery.
Key playmaker Sergio Arribas is entirely unavailable.
Goalkeeper Aron Yaakobishvili and defender Nelson Monte have been ruled out.
Probability & Market Breakdown
The fundamental metrics indicate a low-scoring, highly tactical battle. While Almería remains the superior side on paper, their depleted roster means a direct away victory is far from guaranteed.
Outcome Probabilities: P1 (Home Win): 34% | X (Draw): 30% | P2 (Away Win): 36%
Total Goals Line: Under 2.5 Goals (Highly recommended line, reflecting Segunda División trends)
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No (Expect cautious tactical setups)
Double Chance: X2 (Away win or Draw)
Most Likely Exact Score: 1:1
Conclusion & Main Bet
Almería's unbeaten tactical structure makes them tough to beat, but their long list of absentees lowers their chances of a clean win. Tenerife will use their home field advantage to press, but a draw remains highly probable. The smartest position is the Double Chance X2 line, protecting against the high draw probability of 30%.
試合マーケット